New ad dollars will shift the focus of advertising toward mobile — mostly for video and social — while programmatic will become the new standard for online media buying, according to a Forrester Research report released Wednesday. Amazon also might benefit from several changes coming down the pike, as advertisers look for a safer environment to sell their products and services.
The updated report estimates that U.S. advertisers will spend nearly 70% more on display and social media advertising between 2017 and 2021. Investments, however, will be met with ad blocking and invalid impressions. The two challenges still continue to pose challenges for advertisers and test their faith in display.
The report — 2017 To 2021: US Online Display Advertising’s Great Reckoning — highlights changes in online display and social media advertising spend during the next five years. It focuses on how the dynamics will drive growth and what the landscape will look like in 2021.
Digital media channels, excluding search, will represent more than one-third of total advertising spend in 2021, up from one-quarter in 2017.
Forrester estimates that in 2017 about 43% of U.S. online adults reported using an ad blocker on at least one device, and 16% use it on a smartphone. The inability to view inventory and ad fraud adds to the challenges.
Overall, the challenges will eventually “wipe out over a third of online display ad spend annually until 2021,’ as it becomes clearer why marketers question not just the effectiveness of online display advertising but the dynamics of the media channel as a whole.
Investments in social media advertising will carry the majority of the growth — nearly doubling in the next three to four years. Mobile display ads also will see a bump.
Amazon will benefit from the exodus as advertisers flee from open-exchange programmatic platforms as they head toward a handful of channels, according to the report. Amazon’s U.S. ad revenue is forecast to surpass $2.5 billion by 2021. And while its ad business is still small, advertisers are looking to advertiser in a “safe” and trackable platform.