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Many media channels can expect a banner year in 2020. The Summer Olympics and the presidential election will help drive ad spending to new records. Unfortunately, newspapers and magazines won’t participate in that growth without developing their digital outlets.

Magazine ad revenue will slump 9.7% this year to $9.8 billion, a steeper decline than the 9.1% drop to $11.8 billion for newspapers, according to estimatesconsulting firm Winterberry Group published last week.

The forecast shouldn’t surprise anyone in the publishing industry, following a year of consolidation, widespread job cuts and dozens of stories about the threat of “news deserts.” The trends are disheartening, but there are some pockets of opportunity for publishers, as the Winterberry report also suggests.

U.S. digital ad spending will expand by about 15% to $166.4 billion this year. It is becoming more fragmented as newer categories such as influencer marketing and digital video carve out a bigger share.

While search and paid social will be the biggest categories, publishers can find room for growth in display ads and possibly in digital audio formats like podcasts.

Winterberry forecasts that digital audio advertising will expand by 15% to $3.4 billion, a market that publishers are well positioned to dominate by repurposing written content as spoken-word audio.

Even in the realm of offline advertising, publishers can find growth in experiential marketing and sponsorships of live events, where spending is forecast to grow by 3.1% to $48.5 billion, making it the second-biggest category after linear TV.

Aside from offline and online advertising, publishers can build their revenue from subscriptions, paywalls, licensing and affiliate fees from online marketplaces. Building those businesses requires specialized expertise, but it can be done.

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Sourced from MediaPost

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Time spent watching video already pivoted to mobile.

The sheer volume of mobile video consumption will push mobile video ad spending past non-mobile next year. In 2018, mobile video ad spending is expected to grow 49 percent to nearly $18 billion, while fixed online video ad spending is expected to decline 1.5 percent to $15 billion.

That’s because people around the world will watch 25 percent more video on phones and tablets next year, while video consumption on non-mobile devices like laptops and computers is expected to decline for the first time, according to new forecasts from media measurement company Zenith.

In 2018, people on average will spend 36 minutes watching online video on their phones and tablets compared with 18.5 minutes on non-mobile devices. Mobile online video consumption first passed non-mobile last year and the gulf is going to widen significantly in the coming years.

Streaming on smart TVs — alone among non-mobile devices — continues to rise, but not fast enough to make up for declines in desktop and laptop viewing. Mobile device viewership growth was enough to lift overall online video consumption 20 percent this year.

 

Online ad spending has yet to catch up. Online ads served on desktops and connected TVs are bigger and considered more compelling than their smartphone and tablet counterparts, so they command a higher price.

Online video advertising currently makes up 28 percent of all digital display ad spending, up from 21 percent in 2012. That’s expected to rise to 30 percent next year and 31 percent in 2019.

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Sourced from recode