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I recently wrote about the future of the browser and Surf, a new app from the creators of Flipboard. Both stories explore the changing nature of the web and its impact on the media landscape. I’m not shy about expressing my frustrations with the establishment media and the ever-present gulf between technology and old media companies. I’ve been involved with the internet and online publishing from the very beginning — even before many big media companies embraced it. Those companies have almost always lagged behind in understanding the shifting reality of what media is, how we consume it, and how it’s distributed.
The widespread lack of understanding among the establishment media allowed Google to become a behemoth. And then they essentially handed the keys to the kingdom to Mark Zuckerberg and Co. They are making the same mistake with the new AI platforms. Despite all the brouhaha about fighting Perplexity or OpenAI, it will amount to nothing more than a short-term squeeze play.
Some media companies are simply signing deals, taking the cash while they can. By doing deals with these platforms and giving them access to their content, most publications might feel they will be rewarded with traffic to their websites. Here’s what Nicholas Thompson, CEO of The Atlantic, said on a podcast:
We can go through it in complex way or the simple way. The simple way is we believe it provides revenue, but more importantly provides a potential traffic source. Provides an avenue for a product partnership that could be very beneficial, and that provides a way for us to help shape the future of AI…
…[Another] part is this very interesting search element, where right now in OpenAI they have browse mode and they can link out to Atlantic stories. They have said that they’re going to build a search product. They have not launched the search product, but they have said they would build it. We have allowed them to include The Atlantic in their search product.
Our view is that if this becomes an important way that people navigate the internet, that it will be better for us to be in it than to not be in it, and also to help shape it than not help shape it.
The Atlantic and its brethren have about as much chance of shaping the future as I do of convincing Elon Musk to focus on playing cricket. The challenge for these publications is more existential.
Unlike search engines, AI platforms are built on precision and summaries. They’re unlikely to be a major source of traffic or advertising revenue. What about getting paid for the summaries OpenAI serves in response to prompts? These prompts will vary widely, as will the responses, breaking the traditional mass-media revenue model. As I explained in my “future of browser” article, information itself is being atomized, which will likely upend the web and media as we know them.
Facebook made big promises to media companies, only to pull the rug from under them. OpenAI, Anthropic, and Perplexity are likely to be equally, if not more, ruthless. These platforms won’t need the media for long.
The old media has consistently misunderstood digital transformation, and it’s no surprise that we have a media ecosystem still trapped in old monetization models, where “interruptions” have only grown more aggressive. What began as occasional magazine ads has evolved into a constant barrage across all platforms—from billboard-cluttered webpages to podcast sponsorship breaks and algorithmic social feeds designed for ad delivery.
Social media platforms, built around algorithmic feeds and advertising models, have reduced content discovery to a game of clicks, likes, and engagements. Mass-market media has followed suit, optimizing for sensationalism rather than depth. All of it, from podcasts to news apps, interrupts users constantly with ads, pushing all of us to exhaustion.
In reality, the seeds of media’s destruction are built into its architecture, because outlets must feed advertising systems, not the audience. The media establishment disregards why audiences visit them, and it’s no surprise the system has reached its limits. Too many advertisements, too many interruptions, and too much “content” mean that, as an end customer, you are decoupled from media brands.
Nowhere was this more obvious than during the recent election cycle. The news cycle showed that information consumers were ready to move on from tired old content creation, delivery, and distribution models. Who wants to deal with 500 versions of a 500-word article with a sizzling headline and a sliver of actual news? Try sitting through 10 minutes of CNN or any cable show. Screaming, shouting, and superficiality make it easy to tune out traditional media.
It’s hardly surprising people want 60-second summaries on TikTok and headlines on Twitter. A recent Pew Research study found that “about one-in-five Americans – including a much higher share of adults under 30 (37%) – say they regularly get news from influencers on social media.” While social media is known for hot takes and memes, it’s much more than that, as Pew’s study revealed. “Overwhelming majorities say they get all four types of content asked about in the survey: basic facts (90%), opinions (87%), funny posts (87%), and breaking news (83%),” the survey noted.
OpenAI and Claude are demonstrating that we’re entering a phase where individuals will engage with platforms as a singular individual entity. Even if these platforms adopt advertising, each query will generate a unique response, making it difficult to replicate traditional mass media monetization. This represents the newest variation of the game played by Google and Facebook.
Google and Facebook are already showing that by embedding “Ask AI” and “Summaries” into their products, they are ready to produce one-to-one advertising using “Generative AI.” They won’t need to send people anywhere, much like OpenAI or whoever triumphs as a big winner in the AI sweepstakes.
The internet was originally envisioned as a place for connection, collaboration, and discovery. But over time, it has been distorted by business models that prioritize engagement metrics over meaningful interaction. Discovery has long been the open web’s greatest challenge, with search engines turning it into an SEO game and social platforms creating algorithmic echo chambers. AI platforms are making discovery almost irrelevant.
You stay still, but your AI agent goes out and fetches, distils, and synthesizes the content and renders it in whatever format you want — audio, video, or text. This is the future. None of the media business models will work in the future — neither advertising nor paywalls. Today’s content deals, like the one The Atlantic signed with OpenAI, are akin to the sugar high you get from soda. The sugar high is followed by the inevitable crash.
December 21, 2024 San Francisco
Addendum: The Washington Post is drama central these days. The paper is trying to come up with a new growth strategy. And there is a new (editor in) chief in town. Furthermore, some believe they can save the paper if they can buy it from Jeff Bezos. I wish all of them good luck in all those endeavours. After all, trying is better than doing nothing. The media industry is in a dire situation. It is time to reinvent. and it starts by rethinking the meaning of media in the age of “AI” and then we need to figure out how to make it work financially.
Feature Image Credit: Jeremy Bishop on Unsplash